SVET Reports
SVET Markets Weekly Update (March 10–14, 2025)
On Week 11, major stock indexes closed in deep red, nearing yearly lows after more than a month of continuous decline reminiscent of 2022, as consumer and business sentiment deteriorated at a speed not seen in decades, while the economy still remains relatively strong. Meanwhile, BTC, ETH, and SOL continued to slide, prompting some analysts to declare the start of a bear market.
On Monday equities were in deep red, with the Nasdaq and S&P hitting 6-month lows while consumer inflation expectations rose to a yearly high of 3.1%.
World’s Markets:
EU stocks were falling, following American markets engulfed in trade war mongering. Chinese, Brazilian, and Indian stocks followed the world’s trend into the red zone as America’s economic downturn becomes more pronounced. Meanwhile, Chinese domestic demand is weakening as deflationary pressure mounts.
Commodities and Currencies:
The euro is at a 4-month high as Germany declared a €500 billion infrastructure fund to foster economic growth. Oil approached a 6-month low on recession fears and concerns about oversupply if sanctions are lifted.
Crypto:
BTC plunged deeper after stocks and approached its November support zone of 70K to 75K. ETH broke through the buy barrier at 2K and is now trading at levels reached on a second month after the EU war started in February 2022. SOL is rapidly nearing 100, its yearly low.
The State Of Markets: All In Red, as America’s recession looms investors all over the world continue to panic-sale.
On Tuesday, major stock indexes continued to fall as trade war escalates on new retaliatory tariffs. Meanwhile, business owners optimism dropped to the pre-election level with inflation remaining the main issue and job openings beating expectation specially in retails and finance while services shed jobs vacancies.
World’s Markets:
EU stocks deepen its downsize with French market at its month lows as autos with N. American exposure declined.
Brazilian industries stalled after three-month downsize with main gains coming from machinery sector while declines were registered in petroleum production. Brazilian equities were mostly flat.
Indian market was volatile as IndusInd Bank dropped 30% on misreporting while Bharti Airtel gained on SpaceX’s agreement to bring Starlink to India.
Chinese indexes were in green after the conclusion of the CCP annual meeting (Two Sessions), where party officials promised to support tech.
Commodities and Currencies:
Gold went closer to ATH as oil prices lowers and dollar continues to weaken amid Washington’s anti-trade policies.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, SOL and ADA recovered adding 5–10% on technical buying.
The State Of Markets: Flat to Negative, world’s markets keep downward trajectory as investors continue to exit while trade war intensifies.
On Wednesday, equities are mixed in response to retaliatory tariffs and an unexpected softening of the inflation rate to 2.8 from 3.0 for the first time in 6 months, driven by a decrease in energy costs (except for natural gas) and a smaller increase in shelter and transportation indexes. The government budget deficit (-$307B) continues to mount due to debt payments.
World’s Markets:
EU stocks halted a 3-day downward streak, primarily due to the absence of extreme negativity and supported by an increased likelihood of a potential ceasefire. Retail growth in Spain continued to slow, particularly in non-food products. German bond yields reached a over 10-year high in anticipation of increased state borrowing.
Brazilian inflation continues to climb, reaching a 17-month high of 5.06%, driven by energy prices, which have been somewhat softened by government credits, as well as housing costs. Meanwhile, stocks are rising based on technical factors.
Indian industries grew beyond expectations, particularly in petroleum, minerals, and textiles. Despite this, stock indexes continue to decline as tech stocks fell following downgrades by leading brokers.
Chinese stocks are in decline as tech momentum wanes after the end of the CCP session.
Japan’s market stalled due to a 6–7% monthly wage hike deal between major corporations and their workers (30% of the country’s labor force), opening the door for more BOJ rate hikes as inflation is expected to rise as a result.
Commodities and Currencies:
The sea freight index continues its rally, reaching a 3-month high as producers worldwide stockpile materials ahead of impending tariffs. Aluminum prices reached a 9-month high following Trump’s 25% tariffs, which significantly impact the American market, which imports 80% of its aluminum needs. The euro hit a 4-month high amid renewed hopes for a one-month ceasefire deal.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, and SOL have slightly softened their declines, reaching their 5–6 month lows.
The State Of Markets: Mixed, American and EU markets are mostly in the green, supported by a technical correction and easing inflation (which is almost certainly temporary), as well as renewed hopes for peace. In contrast, stock indexes in Asia are mostly down or stalled due to rising inflation and slowing economies.
On Thursday, equities turned red due to new tariff threats, despite producer prices declining on a yearly basis, with the largest monthly fall since July 2024, led by vehicles and food.
World’s Markets:
European industrial output stabilized after a 20-month streak of contraction, driven by a surge in intermediate goods (those used for the production of other goods), excluding energy. EU markets declined due to the refusal for a ceasefire and the threat of 200% tariffs on wine. France’s GDP growth was revised to 0.7% from 0.9%, partly due to trade tensions (estimated cost = -0.1% of France’s GDP).
Brazilian equities rose on local developments, including a legal victory regarding a tax infraction and positive quarterly reports from commodities companies, particularly Petrobras.
Indian indexes were down for the fifth consecutive session, led by declines in the auto, tech, and banking sectors, ahead of prolonged festive weekends.
Chinese markets were in the red for the second consecutive session, led by tech and AI, amid renewed pessimism about the CCP’s 5% economic growth target.
Japanese stocks fell due to prospects of a BOJ rate hike, despite a surge in Mitsubishi Electric shares following the announcement of a 43.5 trillion yen government defense plan.
Mining production in South Africa continued its downward trend that began in 2024, as global demand — particularly from China — for resources fell. This decline was led by iron ore, platinum metals, and coal, while gold production rebounded in January.
Commodities and Currencies:
Gold reached a new ATH above 2,970, silver hit a 4-month high, and the dollar strengthened again due to geopolitical factors.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH, and SOL followed stocks into a downward spiral, raising concerns among some analysts who see signals of an upcoming bear market sparked by tariffs leading to an economic recession. Most, however, remain hopeful, believing that this is a temporary price adjustment that will pass as soon as tariffs are lowered or revoked.
The State Of Markets: In Red, almost all major global markets were down due to new tariff threats, an economic slowdown, and the refusal of a ceasefire deal.
On Friday, markets are on the rise as investors’ worries about a government shutdown ease, coupled with expectations of the Fed’s shift towards more active rate reduction. This comes as consumer sentiment plummets to 2022 lows, with people’s expectations deteriorating across all economic facets, including personal finance, labor, and inflation. Inflation surged to 4.9% from 4.3% this year and is projected to rise to 3.9% from 3.5% over the next five years — the largest monthly increase in 33 years — impacting business conditions. Meanwhile, current economic conditions remain, objectively, little changed.
World’s Markets:
EU equities followed America’s upward trend on a brief surge of trader optimism. German stocks jumped due to an agreement between Merz and the Social Democratic Party (SD) to change the state’s borrowing rules, which will allow for increased spending. Spanish inflation has risen for the fifth consecutive month, reaching 3% and nearing yearly highs, driven primarily by energy prices.
The Brazilian real continues to strengthen on an improving government budget, while producers’ inflation eased for the twelfth consecutive month to nearly zero, with the food sector contributing the most. The stock market closed in the green, though retail sales continued to decline for the third month in a row.
Foreign investments in the Chinese economy sank by more than 20%, marking the sharpest decline since 2009. Investors are disillusioned with the CCP lack of stimulus and excessive control over the economy. Chinese stock indexes rebounded due to technical factors, helped by expectations of stimulus promises following a conference with officials on Monday.
Commodities and Currencies:
The dollar index edged down as gold prices hit a record closing above 3000.
Crypto:
BTC, ETH and SOL registered an uptick after stocks but have still maintained their bearish trend.
The State Of Markets: In Green, primarily due to a technical correction, along with minor positive shifts in internal political settlements and an optimistic interpretation of minor economic data.
On Week 12, investors will focus on the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, economic projections, and key data like retail sales and housing indicators. Globally, rate decisions from Japan, China, the UK, and others, along with inflation and economic data, will be closely monitored.