Friday's Markets Update (July 5, 2024)

05 Jul 2024 by rate3

stocks hit new records after June jobs data showed a slowdown. Internationally, gold and silver surged on renewed hopes for rate cuts. BTC continued its descent, dipping below $54K due to whales' protracted selloffs amid increasing geopolitical worries. This was underscored by a fundamental change in the UK government, where almost all pro-crypto politicians lost their jobs overnight following the Labour Party's groundbreaking win. ETH followed despite positive ETF news.

Details

Unemployment rose to 4.1% in June, the highest in nearly 3 years. This is despite adding 116,000 jobs. More people are entering the workforce (participation rate up to 62.6%), but not finding jobs as quickly. 1Y trend: "Up" (BLS)

Crypto

Britain's big election shakeup could hurt crypto. The new government's priorities likely won't include crypto, and key industry supporters lost their seats. This means less regulatory clarity and a potentially less crypto-friendly environment. (source)

World Markets

Eurozone retail sales in May 2024 barely rose (0.3%) compared to last year, a significant slowdown from the historical average growth of 1.07%. This follows record highs in April 2021 and lows in April 2020. 1Y trend: "Up" (source)
Eurozone construction slumped in June, with PMI hitting a new low (41.8) since mid-2020. Falling orders led to job cuts, lower material purchases, and a cautious outlook for the future. 1Y trend: "Down" (PMI)
Spain's factory output grew a modest 0.4% in May, below expectations (1.4%). Production rose for consumer goods but fell for energy and capital goods. This follows a weak April (0.2% increase). 1Y trend: "Side" (INE)

Currencies

The British pound rose to $1.28, its highest level in three weeks, after the Labour party won the parliamentary election, ousting the Conservative party after 14 years. Labour's emphasis on economic stability and strict spending guidelines boosted market confidence, making the pound a "safe haven" asset. Analysts predict a rate cut in August and expect this political shift to benefit British investments. 1Y trend: "Side"

Commodities

Silver surged towards $31.5 in July, its highest since May, when it reached 11-year's highest, on hopes of a Fed rate cut in September. A weak US jobs report and a slowdown in services pressured the dollar, boosting silver. Expectations of Chinese stimulus and rising solar demand due to record-breaking solar farm connections also fueled the rally. 1Y trend: "Up"

On Week 28, investors watching for inflation data, Fed Chair testimony, and consumer sentiment. Europe holds elections, while several countries announce interest rates and inflation figures. UK releases GDP and retail data. China and India share economic updates.