SVET Reports
Monday's Markets Update (September 23, 2024)
On Monday, stocks reached new highs, yet again. Intel shares rose on investment news, while Tesla gained ahead of its robotaxi launch. Economic data, however, raised concerns about growth, with manufacturing at a 15-month low and job market indicators weakening. Internationally, gold, natural gas, and coffee all rose in a combination of geopolitical and climatic factors. ETH took the lead, slowly rising to 2.7K, while BTC stalled just under its 200MA.
Details
The manufacturing sector continued to shrink in September, with new orders falling at the fastest pace in over a year. This led to lower production, slower delivery times, and job cuts. Input prices declined to a six-month low due to lower energy costs and reduced supply chain pressures. 1Y trend: "Down" (SP)
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased in August, indicating a slight improvement in economic activity. Production rose, while employment remained stable. Sales, orders, and inventories declined, and personal consumption and housing weakened. The three-month moving average showed a slight decrease. 1Y trend: "Side" (CFed)
Crypto
Betting odds for Harris and Trump have remained nearly equal since the Sept. 10 debate, with the election approaching. Polls indicate a close race, especially in swing states. Harris currently leads in betting markets, reflecting a 55.6% chance of winning compared to Trump's 50%. Recently, the odds have stayed consistent, with Harris maintaining her polling strength, contrasting with Trump's earlier preference in August. (source)
World Markets
The eurozone economy contracted in September, with manufacturing and service sectors both declining. Germany and France are both heavily affected after "Olympics effect" dissipated. New orders, backlogs, and exports fell, while job losses rose. Input costs slowed, but output prices increased slightly. Economists warned of impending stagnation. 1Y trend: "Side" (SP)
The French manufacturing sector continued to contract in September, although the rate of decline slowed slightly. New orders, particularly from North America and Germany, remained weak, leading to a sharp drop in output. Job cuts slowed, and input prices eased. Manufacturers remain pessimistic about future prospects. 1Y trend: "Down" (SP)
The HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI fell to a new low in September, indicating a deepening contraction in the private sector. Manufacturing output declined sharply, and service sector growth stalled. Businesses reported weaker demand, reduced investment, and concerns about the economy. Price pressures eased, and business expectations turned pessimistic. 1Y trend: "Side" (SP)
The Dutch economy grew by 1% in Q2, rebounding from a previous decline. Net trade contributed positively, with exports outpacing imports. Government spending increased, while household consumption fell. Dutch GDP grew by 0.8% on a yearly basis. 1Y trend: "Up" (CBS)
Commodities
Natural gas prices rose to their highest level in nearly two months (2.5) due to potential supply disruptions from a tropical storm and lower-than-expected storage increases. 1Y trend: "Side"
Gold prices made new record high, propelled by expectations of lower interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions. The escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has further boosted gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. 1Y trend: "Up"
Arabica coffee prices have reached 13-year highs (2.6) due to dry weather in Brazil, the world's largest producer. Forecasts indicate limited rainfall for the rest of September, raising concerns about sufficient October rains. This dry spell is the worst since 1981. Robusta coffee prices are also rising after a typhoon damaged crops in Vietnam. 1Y trend: "Up"