Tuesday's Markets Update (October 15, 2024)

16 Oct 2024 by rate3

On Tuesday, equities fell, led by the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors. Megacap chip stocks like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom declined significantly. Apple rose due to strong demand for older models. New York manufacturing activity is sharply down. Oil prices are down, while gold prices are up. European investor sentiment improved as EU industrial output rebounded. BTC and ETH stumbled at 67K and 2.6K, but remain in a bullish trend.

Details

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -11.9 in October, surprising analysts. This is the worst reading since May, indicating a contraction in New York State. New orders, shipments, and inventories fell. Delivery times shortened, but supply availability worsened. Labor market conditions improved slightly. Input and selling price increases remained modest but rose. Future business activity rose to a multi-year high. 1Y trend: "Up" (NYF)

World Markets

The ZEW Indicator for the Euro Area rose to 20.1 in October, exceeding expectations. This follows three months of decline and is the highest point since July. Improved sentiment is driven by stable inflation expectations, potential ECB rate cuts, and stronger economic forecasts. Analysts are mostly optimistic about the economy. The current economic situation indicator fell, and inflation expectations rose. 1Y trend: "Up" (Zew)
Germany's ZEW Current Conditions Index fell to -86.9 in October, the lowest since May 2020. This indicates a rapidly worsening economic situation in Germany. 1Y trend: "Down" (Zew)
South Korea's unemployment rate rose slightly to 2.5% in September from 2.4% in August but still stays on a decades lows as Korea is one of the major beneficiaries of rising geopolitical tensions over Taiwan and CCP policies. The number of unemployed people fell, while the number of employed people rose. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged. 1Y trend: "Down" (KR)
The Brazilian real weakened to a one-month low of 5.65 per USD in October. Concerns about reduced foreign exchange inflows and a stronger US dollar contributed to the decline. Lack of details on Chinese stimulus dampened demand for Brazilian exports, impacting key industries. Soybean, corn, and iron ore prices fell, further weakening the real. Selling pressure was capped by stronger economic data, favoring a hawkish stance by the Brazilian central bank. 1Y trend: "Up, Weakening"

Commodities

Gold prices rose slightly to $2,665 per ounce, supported by declining Treasury yields. Weaker New York manufacturing data increased the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset. The dollar eased, but remained near recent highs. Markets expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November. Investors await retail sales, industrial production, and jobless claims data. Gold remains a safe haven, though easing Middle East tensions could limit its rise. 1Y trend: "Up"
WTI crude oil futures fell 4.4% to $70.6 per barrel due to reduced supply disruption fears (about energy targets in Iran). The IEA cut demand forecasts, and Chinese oil demand declined. Crude production in the Americas is expected to rise. OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast. 1Y trend: "Side"