SVET Reports
SVET Markets Weekly Update (April 7–11, 2025)
On Week 15, markets moved up and down violently as Trump’s trade war evolves, with volatility at historically high levels exceeding those reached in 2008 and 2020.
On Monday, equities have moved further into the red territory. The tariff’s self-inflicted disaster continued, with the volatility VIX index reaching its 2020 highs (60). China’s rhetoric is escalating. The S&P has technically entered bear territory, while the rest of the market has reached a 14-month low. EU markets are down by 5% or more. All the world’s markets followed suit with drops of 5–15%, depending on the size of the market. Indonesia’s market hit a four-year low. Malaysian stocks are near a 16-month low. Hong Kong equities are experiencing the steepest drop since 2008. The dollar index is down to around 103 as China vowed to “fight to the end” to defend its interests. BTC and the rest of the crypto market tumbled after holding strong on Friday, as traders succumbed to fear engulfing the world.
On Tuesday, the market storm continued, with the VIX staying above 50 — levels not seen since 2020 — while all major stock indexes swung wildly, adding to more than $1 Trillion of evaporated wealth as a result of Trump’s unorthodox “liberation by liquidation” cataclysm and reaching a one-year low. This has rendered all lagging economic indicators, which economists use to report on the state of the world economy, obsolete, including March’s business optimism index, which has been falling for the past three months.
World’s Markets:
Meanwhile, some EU and Asian markets rebounded after Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate, adding to the confusion.
Commodities and Currencies:
Oil has shed more than 5%, reaching a four-year low due to global recession expectations. This is compounded by the 2–5% decline in prices of major industrial metals such as copper and tin.
Crypto:
The crypto market, which initially showed some resilience, is now in free fall, with even stablecoins dropping by 5–10% daily. For example, MATIC (POLY), once one of the major performers, is down almost 70% from its levels just four months ago. ETH is aiming for $1K — a level not seen since the start of the EU war — while BTC continues to tick down, dipping below $80K in a strong bearish pattern.
The State Of Markets: Chaos reigns as traders all over the world try to second-guess how much of Trump’s tariff damage is here to stay for the long term and how much of it is just Trump’s way of self-assertion.
On Wednesday, markets swing widely as Trump’s 90-day tariff delay is announced. 10-year government bonds are being sold, with yields rising as high as 4.5%, as some investors flee to cash due to the rising uncertainty created by the White House’s reckless economic policies, which are undermining Treasuries’ traditional status as a safe haven. This goes against traditional logic when traders consider bonds a refuge during recessionary times. Gold jumps, the dollar falls, and the euro reaches a 6-month high amid the escalation of China’s trade war. Iron ore prices are at a 7-month low. The crypto market rebounded following stocks, with many coins reaching their yearly lows on technicals.
On Thursday, stocks fell sharply on China’s new 145% tariffs after Wednesday’s historic rally, with Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon being the most exposed. Meanwhile, inflation eased to 2.4% (down from 2.8%, below the 2.6% forecast), with the core component reaching its May 2020 level.
World’s Markets:
EU equities rallied in response to a pause in tariffs (it happened before the announcement of China’s new levies).
China’s producer prices decreased more than expected (by 2.5% vs. a forecast of 2.3%), with the steepest drop occurring in mining (-8.3%). China’s stock indexes rose as CCP officials held an ad-hoc meeting to discuss responses to the tariffs.
Commodities and Currencies:
Gold soared to a new ATH, while the dollar fell. The euro reached a 20-month high, and the dollar is at a 6-month low, while oil prices dropped 5% on recession expectations.
Crypto:
The crypto market turned red again, with ETH and SOL shedding more than 8%, while BTC slid 3%, dipping below 80K once more.
The State Of Markets: In the red, markets shed almost all gains from the previous day as the tariff war with China escalates.
On Friday, equities are in greed again after Trump’s ‘optimistic’ comments on the China deal. Producer prices dropped unexpectedly for the first time in half a year, with gasoline costs plunging. Additionally, food and other costs (core PPI) decreased far below expectations. This might be the first sign of stagnation, where consumers reduce consumption, prompting producers to react by lowering prices. Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since June 2022, dropping from 57 in March to 50.8 in April (the fourth straight month, down more than 30% since December 2022). Inflation expectations for 2025 stand at 6.7%, the highest since 1981.
Commodities and Currencies:
Gold surged to an absolute record (above 3240). The euro rose to new highs as the dollar fell to a three-year low.
Crypto:
The crypto market followed stocks upward, with BTC reaching 83K.
The State Of Markets: stocks are in the green following Trump’s comments, despite rapidly deteriorating economic fundamentals.
On Week 16, global markets will stay volatile as trade tensions and earnings reports (Goldman Sachs, Netflix, etc.) unfold. Key economic data and central bank decisions (ECB, Canada, etc.) will also influence sentiment.